What is the likelihood of a new Wario Land? A comprehensive analysis

[Domi]

After getting back to the WL series and catching up with news and stuff for a few months (massive props to the Wario Franchise Appreciation Twitter/Tumblr account, by Warelander IIRC), I decided to make a thread gathering as much information as possible about... anything that could be related to a new Wario Land game in the making. There's going to be speculation as anyone could have guessed, just to try filling in the blanks, but I'll try to be as realistic as possible with what we have.

Note: there's a tl;dr at the very end, if you don't want to read everything go there.

Let's begin.

The Wario Land rereleases

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Every Wario Land game was rereleased for the 3DS and the Wii U between 2012 and 2014. The exception being Shake it!, rereleased in 2016 for the Wii U, and Virtual Boy Wario Land, still MIA to this day. There isn't much to say here, but rereleases of old games do allow companies to gauge interest on old IPs, if the games sell well, a sequel might be considered. And they did rerelease every single game (bar VBWL).

Did you know Sin & Punishment got a sequel only because the Wii VC re-release sold extraordinarily well? Even I bought it!

The easy signs

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During many years in Nintendo's recent history... Wario has been done quite dirty. But Nintendo changed its approach in 2017. Don't forget this year. Thankfully, Warelander made a comprehensive list about how much Nintendo has been pushing Wario in recent years... including some Wario Land references out of nowhere. Gives you hope, huh? Captain Syrup has been referenced a few times even. Smash went from featuring none to actual Wario Land content. This sudden and noticeable change had to be pushed by Nintendo rather than a lot of developer teams "coincidentally doing the same thing".

The trademarks

Remember when Nintendo trademarked Wario Land twice? First in 2017 for the Japanese Virtual Boy game title, then in 2018 for just "Wario Land". These trademarks obviously don't have to mean they are working on a new game, but it might mean the opposite as well. The interesting part? They were trademarked alongside... Luigi's Mansion, Advance Wars, Metroid and WarioWare. There are others, but later on they announced sequels to all of those IPs.

Notice the VBWL trademark and the year Nintendo pushed Wario are the same.

The rumors/leaks

It's hard to tell what leaks are 100% legit (even if one was right, games can be cancelled late in development, giving the wrong impression that it was made up) but I honestly feel there's some truth in one specific "leak".

Here's the "leak" that we want to look at. 28 of December of 2017. A third Dillion game, WarioWare Gold, Link's Awakening remake... It's amazing how extremely accurate this "leak" is. Bar the release date, WarioWare Gold was perfectly described, and got many things right about the Link's Awakening's remake. This leak feels real legit, if you ask me.

And what a coincidence: the only WL game that wasn't being rereleased... was getting a remake. Developed by Skip, and supposedly started development during early... 2016, a year before 2017.

The downfall of the 3DS and Skip

In 2018, sales of 3DS handhelds and games were declining at a fast pace, -57% compared to the previous year, and 2019 wasn't any better. "[...] the Nintendo 3DS market has contracted faster than we anticipated [...]", reads a Nintendo Q&A. In September 2020, Nintendo confirmed they were discontinuing the 3DS.

This is not surprising. As stated, sales were much lower than expected. The 3DS remake of Mario & Luigi 3 sold so poorly it killed Alphadream. There's a rumor claiming that many late 3DS games were either cancelled or reworked for the Switch. This seems to be the case for Link's Awakening, which would explain the biggest red flag from the previous "leak" and now it even provides some extra credibility to both that "leak" and this rumor.

Remember the company supposedly behind the VBWL remake? In August 2020, there were signs of Skip going defunct, and while not confirmed, their latest games were... 2 Chibi-Robo spin-offs... in 2013 and 2015 for the 3DS, no Wii U or Switch releases. Neither a strong IP to make spin-offs of or good signs. In 2016 they might have started the VBWL remake, but... they probably went defunct.

Notice the dates again: 1 month after Skip supposedly went defunct, Nintendo announced the death of the 3DS.

TL;DR: What probably happened (in my opinion)

This is 100% speculation on my part, but here I go:

Yes, there was indeed a VBWL remake being worked by Skip. Sadly, the company wasn't doing that hot by looking at their latest releases, and the downfall of the 3DS didn't help. They restarted development for a Switch VBWL remake but it was... it was too late. They didn't have the funds to last until the game was completed, then went defunct by August 2020. Finally, when we were getting a new WL release, after so many, many years...

This... kind of stings, wouldn't you say?

The future

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Knowing what will come in the future is near impossible, but I have a feeling Nintendo still wants more Wario Land. Wario is quite popular these days, WarioWare Gold's success would determine the future of the WW series, it was released at the end of the 3DS life cycle when sales were pretty low... yet Nintendo was happy with WWG sales to greenlight a sequel. WW Get it Together pre-orders ranked quite high in Amazon.

Oh, and do I even need to mention how a certain analysis book and meme are giving Wario Land 4 tons of popularity these days? More than ever, people are giving WL4 a try and it's common to see very positive reactions to that game. (But please, play the other games too!)

The Wario brand is strong, and profitable.

In other news, Nintendo had a recent poll asking fans if they were getting tired of Mario games, plus recently we've seen their 2021 E3 presentation pushing for many different IPs, even resurrecting Advance Wars. A recent blog post from a credited leaker (he's not always right, so keep that in mind) has said Nintendo wants DK as their next "multimedia juggernaut". Nintendo absolutely wants to push many IPs, even if those aren't that well-known.

Conclusion

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If Wario Land ever returns, it should happen in the upcoming years. It all depends on Nintendo, and on a different company to finish what Skip started: the return of a beloved franchise. Problem is, it's been almost a year since Skip went "defunct", and Covid isn't helping either, so it's not gonna happen any time soon.

But remember: Nintendo absolutely wants to push old IPs. They did remake the first 2 Famicom detective games early this year. Who says Wario Land, with a much broader appeal, doesn't stand a chance?

 

[Glowsquid]

tbh there's a lot I find off about that supposed textual leak

-It claims there are microgames involving the camera, there are none. This might have been the writer overplaying their hand.
-It says Get It Together was developed at the same time as Gold. Goro Abe was quoted as saying "if the reception to Gold is good, it might lead to a new one" and "“n the future, if there’s new technology on new hardware that we can use in a new WarioWare title, then we’ll probably prep more unlockables with unique and interactive mechanics.", which doesn't sound like there was a game in development at the same time. Even if Abe was just being coy and it really was in development at the same time and he couldn't say it, the idea that a Warioware game would be in production for 6 years seriously stretch believability, even with the theory the Switch lite forced a redesign.
-Development starting in late 2015 sounds like a fairly long time considering Gold's focus on reusing content and obvious cut corners.

(For what it's worth a patent was filed on August 17 2017 that basically describes the amiibo feature in WW Gold and has Goro Abe listed as one of the inventors. I don't know if amiibo implementation would be decided at the beginning or later in development but this sounds like a much more realistic timeframe going into full production around that time considering the game's scope and low production values).

The biggest red flag for me though is SKIP's supposed involvement. The studio's latest game was a 2D platformer that was a commercial and critical flop, and none of their previous releases, wheter it's those Artstyle games, the previous 3DS Chibi Robo or Captain Rainbow (one of Nintendo's biggest bomb) did all that well. Not to say corporations always make the best and most rational decisions but I can't see a bean counter looking at Zip Lash and go "Let's do that again".

The next WW being a compilation was a point of discussion after Megamix was released, as were demands for a Link's Awakening remake (I also understand some of the details in the post don't match up, but I'll let a Zelda fan confirm or deny that) and remakes of Virtual Boy games. IMo there's a distinct possibility the person fibbed and just got lucky.

Some other things:

-If the Smash content was part of some push to get Wario Land back in the public consciousness, it would be seriously to useless to that end considering how low-effort and sparse it is compared to every other series represented. To me it just looks like they did the bare minimum research to fill the spirit board.
-I'm curious if the Captain Syrup mention in Animal Crossing is also in the Japanese script or if it was just the localizers being cute.

imo I don't think Wario Land is impossible. The games sold well and all those indie games that hommage it show there's a pent-up demand for a new Wario platform game. I feel the biggest obstacle is that no one working at Nintendo seems particularly invested in the series or interested in making more-but the latest E3 shows they have no problem letting 3rd-parties perform some necromancy on the dead stuff.

 

[warelander]

The thing I see the most is a change of attitude towards Wario, especially compared to the awful Wii U era.

I mean, even taking the Ashley focus aside, Smash screwed Wario over so hard that he couldn't even have the Shoulder Charge anymore, just as another middle finger to Wario Land and Wario himself was regularly left out of stuff like Mini-Mario & Friends, Miitopia costumes or the New 3DS commercial.

I do feel that changed in recent years, like, sure, none of the stuff in my post is that huge, aside from maybe some of the Ware stuff, but it is a major step up from what we had before.

Smash isn't something I take as an indication for anything and we still got the minimum when it came to Wario stuff, but having the Shoulder Charge back in his moveset, Land characters as spirits, along with them being shown off a lot on spirit boards or intially the website in Shokora's case, while not big, are a MASSIVE improvement to what we had before.

Same with the Captain Syrup mention in Animal Crossing. Even if it's just a localization thing how often do you see any branch of Nintendo acknowledge her? Not at all. It doesn't need to point towards anything, but holy shit, they are remembering Captain Syrup.

Wario himself has also been better off and I was really surprised by how much Nintendo has flaunted him and Waluigi in the lead-up towards Super Rush's release. Some of that may have been Camelot, who have always adored him, but it's great to see.

In terms of a new Wario Land....I want to be hopeful and Get it Together selling well, which it very likely will, is gonna be healthy for not just WarioWare, but the Wario brand as a whole. Encouraging signs that Wario sells will motivate them to do more Wario projects again.

And there is also the 2018 trademarks. I'm cautious about putting stock into these, since they never need to mean anything, but the increasing amount of games from that trademark pile, that are getting announcements, does let one hope that they are something more serious and not just a ''maybe, maybe not'' trademark deal.

It's all hard to say. I just miss Wario Land a lot. Things are better for Wario in general and I want to hope that this will extend to the revival of Wario Land as well. I'm more hopeful for it than say, Golden Sun at this point.

 

[Ceruleancast]

I mean, even taking the Ashley focus aside, Smash screwed Wario over so hard that he couldn't even have the Shoulder Charge anymore, just as another middle finger to Wario Land and Wario himself was regularly left out of stuff like Mini-Mario & Friends, Miitopia costumes or the New 3DS commercial.

I do feel that changed in recent years, like, sure, none of the stuff in my post is that huge, aside from maybe some of the Ware stuff, but it is a major step up from what we had before.

Smash isn't something I take as an indication for anything and we still got the minimum when it came to Wario stuff, but having the Shoulder Charge back in his moveset, Land characters as spirits, along with them being shown off a lot on spirit boards or intially the website in Shokora's case, while not big, are a MASSIVE improvement to what we had before.

I'm glad he got the dash attack back (though I wish he could jump with it as well even if Wario in Ultimate doesn't exactly need it from a balance perspective) though I wish he did have the earthshake punch as a down smash, as most people including myself dislike the current down smash, which is especially poor from a gameplay perspective and tends to be put as a contender for the worst down smash in the game. The animation is kind of funny but Earthshake Punch is a lot more lovable imo.

 

[Magma]

Skip Ltd doing a VB Wario Land remake just sounds really random to me.

 

[Domi]

Yeah, I just want to say this thread is just me trying to find any kind of information or clue that could potentially point out to anything. Of course I'm not claiming Nintendo is working or going to work anytime soon on a WL game. Heck, if we are talking about possibilities, it could also be Nintendo working on a new Wario platform series.

I just wanted to put together all information and most important rumors/leaks in one place while providing some kind of timeline and explanation behind it, even if a few things feel a bit off... this is why I used that conspiracy theory meme when it came to my final thoughts on the matter

Now, pushing Wario more than ever in recent years and even the Land series doesn't mean a new WL game is in the making, of course not. But it can help increase the value of the character. People might get an interest on him. Why? Well, it's similar to Sega adding Sonic to so many games and products. A lot of people like Wario now? Ok, we can use it to promote Mario Golf: Super Rush. Anyone can be slightly interested in the game and the character, but put both things together and their interest might increase. And, who knows, maybe they'll want the game now!
Get converted into a Wario fan today! With so many games featuring him you might want to buy some... Consoome our products...

I'm more hopeful for it than say, Golden Sun at this point.

Ain't that truth???

 

[warelander]

I do feel like Gold doing well enough, despite being released in an atrocious time for new 3DS releases did, at the very least, restore some of Nintendo's faith in Wario.

I'm not at Nintendo, so I wouldn't know, but comparing the nightmare that was the Wii U era, to how Wario is doing now, is a significant jump.

We went from him say, getting no outfit in Miitopia, to him getting a outfit in the Super Mario anniversary event in Animal Crossing, over characters like Daisy, Toad, Bowser, Yoshi or Rosalina and Wario isn't even part of the Super Mario series outside of two titles.

It's the same kind of thing why him and Waluigi getting a lot of love in Tennis Aces and Super Rush's promotion stands out, because despite Camelot's obvious love for the duo, they didn't get anything special for the 3DS games and now Nintendo got on board with that by flaunting the two on social media in the lead-up to Super Rush's release.

Same goes for the sudden attention given to Captain Syrup, via a spirit (wouldn't be special if it wasn't for previous Smash games ignoring Land's cast), that one WarioWare Gold phone call, who may or may not be her or the mention in Animal Crossing, which, even if it was added in localization, is still huge.

Gold's shift towards more frequent Land references, particularly the attention put on Wario being a treasure hunter, while likely not a hint at anything, do show a lot of goodwill to reconcile both sub-series a bit, which is really nice to see.

I put a lot of my faith into how Get It Together will do and the signs are already pointing towards a optimistic end result. Even if it doesn't lead to a new Wario Land right away and one isn't being worked on already, GIT being a success will still be incredibly healthy for the Wario brand and Wario the character.

 

[Domi]

Regarding Captain Syrup's mention in AC:NH, I've done some research and I couldn't find anything but this, which states

あつまれ どうぶつの森 日本国外版（Animal Crossing： New Horizons）

イベントキャラクター「かいぞく」がキャプテン・シロップについて言及するセリフを言う。

Which roughly translates to "AC:NH outside Japan: The event character "pirate" namedrops Captain Syrup".

 

[Domi]

Ok, so I've been researching trademarks recently and I found out some interesting things.

First of all, Nintendo games tend to have multiple trademarks to cover multiple regions. This practice might indicate a game in development that eventually gets released. This is kind of... I guess obvious, but this is important, because the latest Wario Land trademark does this as well. Keep in mind the trademarks we can find only don't cover every single trademark in existence, at least from my own research.

Not only that, but I have noticed a very interesting similarity regarding a certain WarioWare trademark. There's a "WareWare" trademark set on for 6 regions (this one is probably for WW Gold). The public Wario Land trademarks covers almost every single of these regions (there's only 1 region discrepancy)

The most interesting coincidence? The WW and WL trademarks were submitted on 2018-03-20, the very same day.

So not only we have multiple region trademarks, but on the same terms and day for a WarioWare trademark.

I'm not going to be hopeful or anything, but I thought this could be interesting to share.

 

[G01d3nGar1icbr3ad]

Truth be told;

Pizza Tower is more likely to come out sooner than a Brand New Wario Land game from the Big N!

And That game's been stuck in development for YEARS!

 

[Just a Wario Fan]

Truth be told;

Pizza Tower is more likely to come out sooner than a Brand New Wario Land game from the Big N!

And That game's been stuck in development for YEARS!

I'm afraid you're right, and that's not something I'd like to say.

 

[CM30]

I think there's a decent enough chance. Nintendo's been willing to give their older franchises another chance recently, and the Switch doesn't have that many other Nintendo series without a game on it. So I can definitely see a new Wario Land game being a minor announcement in some upcoming Direct or another.

 

[DabbitDaMips]

This is just unfortunate truth that once you establish an IP the fans don't really appreciate when it strays from the path and it only takes 3 games for fans to lose interest.
I loved Master of Disguise and Wario World... didn't really like shake it but it wasn't terrible.
Still after those three games, even though there were are enough people who claim they like them interest in the series as a whole has gone down.
The same thing happened with M+L SS Saga. I love the whole series but the last three tanked the series (Paper Jam and the releases that included Bowser's Minions and Bowser's Journey though some love them generally killed interest in the series)
The same thing happened with Paper Mario even though some people praise the three latest installments they have killed a lot of interest in the series.
Still some series manage to shift like LoZ but I still know a lot of people who played BoTW and ToTK and claim if another one like them comes out they've lost interest in the series. (because 1) they miss the old item system and 2) they are completionists and hate games with tons of pointless filler)

 

[Baker Man]

I think there may be hope, and hopefully Wario will be more like himself from the platformers than from WarioWARE

 

[CM30]

This is just unfortunate truth that once you establish an IP the fans don't really appreciate when it strays from the path and it only takes 3 games for fans to lose interest.
I loved Master of Disguise and Wario World... didn't really like shake it but it wasn't terrible.
Still after those three games, even though there were are enough people who claim they like them interest in the series as a whole has gone down.
The same thing happened with M+L SS Saga. I love the whole series but the last three tanked the series (Paper Jam and the releases that included Bowser's Minions and Bowser's Journey though some love them generally killed interest in the series)
The same thing happened with Paper Mario even though some people praise the three latest installments they have killed a lot of interest in the series.
Still some series manage to shift like LoZ but I still know a lot of people who played BoTW and ToTK and claim if another one like them comes out they've lost interest in the series. (because 1) they miss the old item system and 2) they are completionists and hate games with tons of pointless filler)

I think for Mario & Luigi the situation AlphaDream was in and their choice of console had as much to do with it.

Paper Jam wasn't just a mediocre game, it also didn't make a lot of money due to its release date. Neither did the two remakes.

So they were stuck making games for a console that was clearly dead (or at least, on life support 5 minutes away from death) rather than the one that was blowing up at the time. Making a game for the Switch was clearly the way forward, but they didn't have the money or development resources to switch to HD game development for such a console, and desperately tried clinging to the 3DS in order to reuse assets from Dream Team and Paper Jam. And then went down with the ship.

But it's interesting to think about, and I do agree that 3 mediocre instalments is usually a death sentence for all but the most beloved, successful series. Mario, Zelda, Pokemon or something like Fifa or Call of Duty could probably survive at least 10 terrible games before it really saw a financial hit. Wario Land or Mario & Luigi? Probably not so lucky.

 

[DabbitDaMips]

I so heavily agree with you @CM30 and honestly it makes me sad (because I want a new warioland and understand Nintendo is upset about the sales of Shake it VS the hard work and effort that went into that game. They clearly think the warioware series is much more profitable than the wario land series). I feel like Fifa and Call of Duty are finally taking a hit (no better CoD game has released since BO1 imo the ones after it are pretty much all the same except for they kept building on zombie modes)(Fifa is more or less going stagnant in the same way by them not working on hitboxes or fine tuning it at all).
Meanwhile even though my statement on Zelda franchise stands they definitely managed to switch it up in a way that is appealing to most people.
Idk if anything can kill mario genuinely, they released 4+ of the same game and they all sold well for basically reskins/minimal mechanic additions.

THAT BEING SAID: I really think the closest we're going to get to a wario land game anytime soon is if they absolutely bless us by putting Wario in Super Mario Bros Wonder. If they do, that along with Wario Ware Move It... I will finally get a switch instead of just bumming off my friends switch.

Just like I only buy Playstation consoles with new or remasterd Metal Gear Solid games in them
I only get Nintendo consoles if (what I consider) a "Wario" game drops on it. (But get it together sussed me out with warioware so a warioware game alone is not going to do it for me)

 

[Baker Man]

i mean, the big nintendo series (mario, zelda, pokemon, kirby), likely aren't going anywhere, but fifa is the exact same everytime, and activision is relying on nostalgia bait with the modern warfare reboot trilogy, so yeah, they've definitely taken a hit, and the new COD MW trilogy is trash anyway, or, at least 1 and 2 are, but I still don't really have hope for MWIII, as the lead dev company is sledgehammer, who made, oh, I don't know, ADVANCED WARFARE, WWII, AND VANGUARD, I've heard it's basically just going to be a $70 patch

FIFA AND COD (specifically MWII and MWIII) ARE BASICALLY THE KRUSTY KRAB 2

 

[DabbitDaMips]

i mean, the big nintendo series (mario, zelda, pokemon, kirby), likely aren't going anywhere, but fifa is the exact same everytime, and activision is relying on nostalgia bait with the modern warfare reboot trilogy, so yeah, they've definitely taken a hit, and the new COD MW trilogy is trash anyway, or, at least 1 and 2 are, but I still don't really have hope for MWIII, as the lead dev company is sledgehammer, who made, oh, I don't know, ADVANCED WARFARE, WWII, AND VANGUARD, I've heard it's basically just going to be a $70 patch

FIFA AND COD (specifically MWII and MWIII) ARE BASICALLY THE KRUSTY KRAB 2

Modern Warfare 2 Breaks CoD Sales Records Ahead Of Season 2 Launch

Long-lasting Call of Duty sales records have been gulagged, with Modern Warfare 2 being on a winning streak ahead of Season 2.

www.ggrecon.com

not if people keep buying all of the (IMO) terrible skins they make but I know I haven't spent actual money on CoD in over 10 years now

 

[ShyGuyXXL]

Oh god... I haven't been on the forums in a while. Why do the posts look like THIS now???

 

[ShyGuyXXL]

They look like "graphic design is my passion" memes.